Offshore Passage: Panama to Ecuador - Part 1

Anna, hauled out on the rails at the Balboa
 Yacht Club in preparation for her
 passage to South America.

AN OFFSHORE PASSAGE from Panama to Ecuador can be a mixed bag of wind strength and direction, in combination with current strength and direction. There can be an abundance, or a lack of wind, current, or wind and current, as the case may be. With dynamic ocean and coastal currents at play, a shifting ITCZ/Monsoon Trough (i.e., convection zone: potential for squalls, rain, and thunderstorms), and converging wind patterns near the Equator--which may yield variable winds or becalmed conditions--the task of plotting a 700 nautical-mile route, while trying to remain under sail for most or all of it, is not usually as straight forward as it may appear on paper. What does appear on paper is simple enough: head SW from the Perlas Islands until longitude 081W and latitude 03N, then turn SE to close on the NW coast of Ecuador which is just south of the Equator.

During the dry season (mid-December to early April) there can be discreet areas of strong winds (northers) that blow across the Isthmus of Panama, from the Caribbean. These winds typically funnel through the Gulf of Panama's west side (between the Perlas Islands and the occasionally rambunctious headland of Punta Mala, before dying off further out to sea. Whereas on the east side of the Gulf of Panama (Perlas Islands to the Panama/Columbia border) the breeze is typically lighter.

As far as the breeze is concerned, the trick is to stay as far away from Punta Mala as possible when the northers are blowing hard, as wind strength can significantly increase from its forecasted value near the Punta Mala headland; additionally, stronger currents and confused waves near Punta Mala can create sloppy conditions. On the other hand, you do not want to be so far away as to completely lose the wind, and the ability to sail when conditions moderate. If conditions are light to moderate, sailing closer to Punta Mala can be beneficial, in that it can give one a lift if the wind has dissipated in areas further to the east.

The other important factor that must be taken into account is the strong, complex ocean and coastal currents along this route. When looking at currents, at this time of year, we can see swirling patterns emerging within the area that we wish to transit. These currents and counter-currents can be significant if they reach a velocity of 1-3 knots. Ideally, we want to plot a course which will keep us moving with a favorable current as much as possible while staying within a zone of comfortable wind strength.

This is a screenshot from an animation of near real-time current flow
 (based on NOAA's OSCAR model, in the area we will soon transit.

To see a visually stunning animated example of the flow of near real-time current and wind patterns, check out Earth.

Another analytical tool we use
 is the HYCOM ocean current model.

Looking at computer models of near real-time ocean currents (e.g., NOAA's OSCAR model, or the HYCOM 08 model), an overall pattern emerges, which in essence defines the way--favorable current leading us south to south-southwest from the Perlas Islands to about longitude 081W (just outside the area of unstable convective activity - that is, outside the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough). Straying too far to the east of this current super-highway will lead us into a stream of counter-current as we approach the east side of the Gulf of Panama, near the Colombian coast. So we try to narrowly define a course to the SW that will keep us moving with the flow until we reach the area near longitude 081W (before the left turn).

The GFS GRIB file is another analytical tool we use to
 interpret projected wind direction and speed.  In this
example the winds are light but ideal in direction
 from the Perlas Islands to NW Ecuador.

Just 6 hours later the wind direction begins to
 turn more toward the west and the wind strength increases.

In 72 hours the winds are unfavorable, shifting toward the east
 and coming from the south near latitude 02N. Since it takes
 longer than 72 hours to reach Ecuador we could be sailing
 against the grain, that is, against the wind and into seas that
will build with a strong current moving in an opposing direction.

Once we arrive in the vicinity of longitude 081W and latitude 04N (just to the west of Malpelo Island on the charts), we may consider turning SSE (toward northwestern Ecuador). Ecuador sits just below the Equator at latitude 00S, and to get there usually means transiting an area of very light southerly or variable winds or, occasionally, calms, in addition to a counter-current from about latitude 03N to the Equator. Ideally, we would like to see the ITCZ/Monsoon trough (in the month of March) either disappear or shift further south, which would open the opportunity for the northers to flow as far as the Equator, and carry us all the way into NW Ecuador, but realistically, that's not likely to happen. We do think that it is possible to see a favorable breeze and current during the first half of our tentative route. But historically, in late March, conditions appear to stall out just south of latitude 03N and longitude 081W (or within a couple hundred nautical miles of the northwest coast of Ecuador), making it likely that motoring or slowly drifting the last leg, into coastal Ecuador, will be the way it plays out. But there is no way to know for certain in locations like this, where weather patterns are unstable and often difficult to predict more than 72 hours out.

Anna's tentative route will be based on the trade-offs
of wind and current patterns while underway; however, we
anticipate the route to look something like our plot, above.

And so, weather-wise, anything can happen. After all, computer models are based on algorithms, and algorithms are based on historical climatic data, and unstable climate is simply a wild card. Occasionally chaotic. On Anna, we of course hope for the best possible conditions on a passage, and utilize traditional prediction models to optimize our chances of seeing those conditions. But we always expect the element of surprise, which sometimes works in our favor, and sometimes not.

We are currently anchored in the southern end of the Perlas Archipelago, 70 nm SE of the Panama Canal's west entrance, and we are now looking for favorable conditions for our ride to Ecuador. We hope to depart, direct to NW Ecuador, within the next week or two, that is, by the end of March.

We estimate an en route passage of 7 to 10 days, based on historical weather conditions in this area, at this time of year. Anna's track progress can be viewed, once we get underway.